Oh Claudio. Oh mate. I know, we’ve all been there pet. You’ve got your head down, working hard, but still, “everything is wrong.”

You just want to pull the duvet over your head and just hope it goes away. But when “everything is wrong” the best bet is often to take a good look.

Shall we? Let’s.

A chart showing Leicester City’s points in the first 15 games, 2014-15 to 2016-17 seasons

Claudio, mate, I know you want to prove that old Nige isn’t the only one who can summon a Christmas miracle for the Foxes, but this is a little too close for comfort.

I really was joking last time, there was no need to kick off a 2014-15 tribute band.

Good news, though; let’s think positive. We are more or less on trend for safety:

A chart showing Leicester City’s points over time in the 2014-15 to 2016-17 seasons as of 2016-12-10

But that’s not exactly what I’d call sustainable safety (ahem). As ever those flat periods representing losses are misleading, giving the impression that you’re treading water when you’re really sinking below the surface. Reorienting the plot around the safety line gives a more realistic view:

A chart showing Leicester City’s distance from the safety trend, 2014-15 to 2016-17 seasons as of 2016-12-10

That’s a lot of losses, occasionally topped up with wins. There aren’t many draws in there, and there need to be more of them. The safety trend line is only just over 1 point per match. Keeping up with it by losing two and winning one has an obvious flaw: if you’re losing most of the time it’s unlikely you’ll bag the wins you need. Fighting out for draws and a single point means you can chip away at that total and hopefully spare yourself the need for any heroics.

After last season, boring conservative play is a come down, but we all know what the other option is.